OPEC+ is leaning toward resuming oil output increases from April, according to several sources familiar with internal discussions, as the alliance positions itself for stronger seasonal demand and sustained price momentum.
The group, which includes members of OPEC and key partners such as Russia, had paused planned production hikes during the first quarter of 2026. The temporary halt was aimed at stabilising the market after volatility linked to global economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions.
An upcoming meeting of eight OPEC+ members scheduled for March 1 is expected to shape the next phase of supply policy. According to sources, the alliance is considering gradually restoring barrels to the market starting in April, coinciding with expectations of higher summer demand in major consuming regions.
Brent crude has been trading near its highest levels since August, supported tighter supply conditions and renewed concerns surrounding US Iran relations. Energy analysts note that elevated prices provide OPEC+ with greater flexibility to unwind voluntary cuts without immediately undermining market stability.
A resumption of output increases would also enable leading producers such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates to reclaim market share. Some other OPEC+ participants, including Russia and Iran, continue to face Western sanctions that complicate export flows and investment planning. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan’s output has been constrained operational challenges in recent months.
Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak has indicated that oil demand is expected to strengthen from March into April, reinforcing arguments within the group for a calibrated supply increase. The approach reflects OPEC+’s broader strategy of adjusting production in response to real time market signals rather than adhering to rigid quotas.
Market participants are closely watching the March discussions, as supply decisions OPEC+ often have immediate effects on global energy prices. Traders are balancing expectations of rising demand with concerns about economic growth in key markets such as China and Europe.
The alliance has sought to maintain cohesion despite differing economic pressures among member states. Its coordinated production management has played a central role in shaping global oil balances since the pandemic era. Any move to raise output from April would signal confidence in demand fundamentals while testing the durability of current price levels.
Oil market volatility remains sensitive to geopolitical developments, particularly in the Middle East, where diplomatic tensions can quickly affect supply expectations. With Brent crude holding firm, the coming weeks are likely to determine whether OPEC+ shifts from cautious restraint to measured expansion in production.
