OPEC+ is expected to consider increasing oil production approximately 137,000 barrels per day in April as the alliance prepares for seasonal demand growth and monitors rising geopolitical tensions affecting global energy markets.
According to sources familiar with internal discussions, eight key producers within the broader OPEC+ coalition are scheduled to meet on March 1 to determine output levels for the coming month. The countries due to participate include Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman.
The proposed increase would mark a resumption of gradual supply adjustments after the group paused planned hikes for the first quarter of 2026 due to softer winter demand. Between April and December 2025, the same eight members collectively raised production quotas around 2.9 million barrels per day, representing roughly three percent of global oil demand.
Energy markets have remained sensitive to geopolitical developments, particularly tensions between the United States and Iran. Brent crude has recently traded near 71 dollars per barrel, close to its highest level since July, amid concerns that any disruption in Middle Eastern supply could tighten global balances.
Industry analysts note that an additional 137,000 barrels per day would mirror incremental increases agreed in the final months of last year. However, some sources suggest that maintaining current production levels for April remains a possibility if market conditions shift.
Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of OPEC, is also reportedly reviewing contingency plans that would allow for short term output and export adjustments in the event of significant supply disruptions in the region. Such flexibility is seen as crucial to stabilising prices and preventing volatility.
OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied producers such as Russia, accounts for roughly half of global oil output. Its coordinated production strategy has played a central role in balancing supply and demand since the pandemic period and continues to influence pricing dynamics worldwide.
While concerns about potential oversupply earlier in the year weighed on forecasts, stronger than expected consumption in parts of Asia and resilient demand in major economies have supported prices. Traders are closely watching the upcoming meeting for signals on how the alliance intends to manage output through the second quarter.
The decision on April production will likely reflect both economic fundamentals and geopolitical considerations, as member states seek to protect revenue stability while maintaining market share in a competitive global environment.
